A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
